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In the course of the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Hungary's prime minister stood out as the sole EU chief to back the Republican candidate. This support came as no shock, considering the Hungarian leader's championing of contentious theories like the "great replacement" theory and his restrictions against press independence. Observers point out that Mr Orbán more or less wrote the playbook for the Make America Great Again campaign, with ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon hailing Orbán as a precursor to Trump.

Campaign Assistance In advance of Hungarian Elections

Last week, ahead of pivotal polls in Hungary just half a year off, the American leader offered electoral assistance. While Orbán pursues a fifth term in office leading a nation he labels an illiberal state, his Fidesz party is behind in the polls. An official trip to the US capital produced beyond a few signed Maga baseball caps; it secured considerably more valuable pre-election gifts.

Waivers and Financial Shields

Even though before admonishing European states on the imperative to eliminate all fuel purchases from the Russian Federation, and threatening sanctions against states persisting to purchase Russian crude, Mr Trump approved to allow a special exemption for the Hungarian government – the largest EU consumer of Russian petroleum. Per the Hungarian leader, the American leadership also promised to extend a “financial shield” to Hungary's capital if it runs into any upcoming challenges, particularly since EU institutions persists in holding back large sums from the EU to Hungary because of violations of legal standards.

The particulars of this deal seem somewhat murky. But Mr Trump recently demonstrated his inclination to support like-minded partners after the United States extended a a $20 billion loan to Javier Milei, the South American leader. While Mr Orbán was unable to arrange a campaign-energising Trump visit to the Hungarian capital, the Oval Office meeting still proved a profitable day’s work.

European Apprehensions and International Implications

Within EU circles, Mr Trump’s intervention probably emphasized the geopolitical stakes of the coming election, ahead of which the moderate contender, the rival candidate, has a solid advantage in opinion data. Heads of state are accustomed not to anticipate steady principles from the US government, and are familiar with the American leader's moves to diminish the bloc. Yet Mr Orbán’s exemption – secured through an pledge to purchase American natural gas and nuclear power – openly contradicts the bloc's aims to phase out Russian oil and gas by the target date.

• Starting in 2022, the two biggest EU importers of Russian petroleum, Hungary and Slovakia, have funneled well over £10bn to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• At the same time, the Hungarian government has consistently deployed the blocking vote to stymie progress in negotiations for Ukraine's EU membership.
• While Europe works to develop a cohesive plan for backing Ukraine, and strengthening its hand in any later diplomatic discussions, Orbán's pro-Russia stance at the international forums is still a key barrier.

Rival's Approach

Péter Magyar has refrained from pledging a major policy shift on the Ukraine conflict, and focused his campaigning on home affairs, while highlighting the need for Hungary to begin operating as a constructive EU member. Following persistent provocations, EU officials can only wait and hope. Mr Orbán’s indifference to fundamental European principles, like the protection of minority groups and the autonomy of civic groups, has persisted as a source of shame for the bloc. His ongoing blocking tactics toward the Ukraine issue risks undermining its long-term safety.